ORANGE COUNTY, Calif. — When Orange County’s second supervisor seat became available, candidates began to mobilize.
Republican Michelle Steel had just unseated Harley Rouda for California’s 39th congressional district seat and would soon be moving on. Democrats quickly endorsed Costa Mesa Mayor Katrina Foley, and Republican candidates began appearing.
The Republican Party of Orange County was slower to make its choice. John Moorlach, the presumed favorite, had just lost his state senate seat to Dave Min and was mulling entering the race. Before holding the 37th Senate District seat for six years, Moorlach had held the 2nd District Supervisor’s seat. With the election set for March 9, some Republican leaders wanted a known quantity with broad name recognition.
Candidates quickly dropped out in favor of Moorlach as he publicly announced his entry. But two have stuck around: Michael Vo, mayor of Fountain Valley, and Kevin Mulldoon, a Newport Beach city councilmember.
Muldoon had been preparing to run for Steel’s seat for a year, eyeing a 2022 run once she had hit her term limit. He had raised $100,000 already, he said, and was serious.
While primaries for general elections allow the top two vote earners to advance, a special election has just one vote. Political parties prefer to run one candidate instead of two who could split the vote. Republicans now have three, while Democrats have Foley and Janet Rappaport, who has no endorsements.
The election is seen as pivotal because Republicans could either cement their majority 4-1, or have a looser 3-2 hold as the county prepares to redraw voting districts.
OC GOP Chairman Fred Whitaker wanted to avoid a split and set about narrowing the field, enlisting donors to encourage Muldoon to quietly exit.
But influential donors had begun to rally behind Muldoon. Palmer Luckey, one of Orange County’s newer fundraising powerhouses, issued flyers for a party in Muldoon’s name. It was $2,100 a plate for VIP tickets for December 20, and included such old-guard brands as Dana Rohrabacher, the former representative of California’s 48th Congressional District.
Still seeing Moorlach as the better option, Whitaker tried to talk Muldoon out of the race in two separate meetings. The first was held at Whitaker’s law office in December, and the second was a week before the filing deadline, over Zoom.
“They didn’t offer me a chance nor did they intend to,” Muldoon said. “I met with him and told him I was the best candidate and it was time for new leadership.”
Neither Muldoon nor Whitaker revealed the full contents of the meeting, but Whitaker said he made it clear Muldoon had no path to victory.
The party had hired a polling service that furnished Whitaker with 93 pages of data. Whitaker said the demographics don’t favor Muldoon. The meetings went nowhere, and after the filing deadline, not only was Muldoon still in but so was Vo.
While Muldoon agreed to hear out party arguments, Whitaker said Vo never responded to his phone calls.
But it’s Muldoon who has the more noted endorsements. Orange County Supervisors Don Wagner and Andrew Do are among the list of prominent Republicans backing him.
“I seriously considered whether I was going to run or not, but when the endorsements and final support from members of the community kept coming in I knew that I had a better opportunity to win than the newcomers to the race,” Muldoon said.
In some ways, it’s a repeat of the 2019 special election when Kris Murray declined to exit the race in favor of Wagner, the eventual winner of the 3rd Supervisor District.
“I expected him to listen to reason, I expected him to listen to people of good will who have influence in the party and I expected him to listen to the data,” Whitaker said.“We’re still very optimistic, it's just Mr. Muldoon is making it a little more difficult.”
Adam Probolsky, a Newport Beach-based strategist and pollster, said Republicans are in a difficult position.
“It’s definitely messy,” Probolsky said. “But I think Moorlach is the guy to beat.”
To win, Moorlach will need to get past Foley, who Probolsky said has “a very good shot.”
But he said Democrats have had a strategy problem, favoring DC political strategists over experienced locals who know Orange County.
Republicans' problems could be more public as candidates continue campaigning. Moorlach has already been lambasted after reports surfaced that state Assemblymember Bill Brough allegedly sexually assaulted one of his former staffers. Moorlach wrote an opinion piece in the Orange County Register calling sexual assault and harassment “intolerable.”
“I think it would be a huge mistake for anyone to publicly use some convoluted story about a woman who has a sexual harassment claim against someone else,” Probolsky said. “Voters aren’t going to logically follow it and start hating on John Moorlach.”
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story incorrectly identified the candidate Michelle Steel unseated. The error has been corrected. (February 3, 2021)