With the midterm elections drawing to a close, a flurry of polls released in recent days appear to show just how close the battle for Congress will shake out.

What You Need To Know

  • A new NBC News poll released Sunday shows that 48% of likely voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 47% prefer a Republican majority

  • The findings are similar to that of an ABC News-Washington Post poll, also released Sunday, which shows Republicans with a one-point advantage over Democrats among registered voters, 49-48; Likely voters were split similarly, 50-48 in favor of Republicans

  • Republicans need to net just five seats to win back control of the House; Democrats face significant headwinds in maintaining their majorities in the House and Senate

  • Where Democrats may see a shimmer of hope is in NBC’s poll, which shows that Democrats have pulled even with Republicans in terms of enthusiasm: 73% of both Democrats and Republicans registered a high interest in voting in the midterms; Last month, the same poll showed the GOP holding a nine-point advantage in enthusiasm, 78-69
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According to a new NBC News poll, 48% of likely voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 47% prefer a Republican majority. That’s the reverse from last month’s survey, where 48% preferred that Republicans take back Congress and 47% wanted Democrats to retain control. In both polls, 5% said they were not sure.

Among all registered voters, Democrats and Republicans were tied, 47-47, the survey showed.

The findings on the generic congressional ballot are similar to that of an ABC News-Washington Post poll, also released Sunday, which shows Republicans with a one-point advantage over Democrats among registered voters, 49-48. Likely voters were split similarly, 50-48 in favor of Republicans.

The story was similar with a pair of polls released Monday: A POLITICO-Morning Consult poll showed Democrats leading Republicans on the generic ballot, 48-43, while a Data for Progress poll had Republicans up by 4 points. 

Morning Consult’s generic ballot tracker shows Democrats and Republicans tied, 46-46. According to the U.S. Elections Project, as of Saturday, more than 39 million Americans have already voted.

Republicans need to net just five seats to win back control of the House, which they lost in 2018’s midterms, the first of Donald Trump’s presidency. The president’s party typically fares poorly in the midterms, and between historical trends and rising inflation, Democrats face significant headwinds in maintaining their majorities in the House and Senate.

Where Democrats may see a shimmer of hope is in NBC’s poll, which shows that Democrats have pulled even with Republicans in terms of enthusiasm: 73% of both Democrats and Republicans registered a high interest in voting in the midterms. Last month, the same poll showed the GOP holding a nine-point advantage in enthusiasm, 78-69.

With just days until the polls close, heavy hitters in both parties will be stumping for their candidates across the country. 

President Joe Biden campaigned in New York on Sunday with Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is locked in a tight battle for re-election with Republican U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin.

"This election isn't a referendum, it's a choice," Biden said. "It's a choice between two fundamentally different visions of America," slamming Zeldin for his stances on abortion rights and gun safety.

 

Hochul campaigned on Saturday with former President Bill Clinton, who warned of “enormous consequences” if Democrats lose control of Congress. 

“I’m scared too. You’re scared? I’m scared,” Hochul said at the event. “We all should be scared. That’s how we are going to win. Because we overcome fear with our vote. Don’t you worry, we are going to overcome fear with our vote.”

Biden campaigned Saturday in Illinois, where he made the case that Medicare and Social Security are on the ballot on Tuesday, and then joined his old boss, former President Barack Obama, for a rally in Pennsylvania for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman and gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro.

“I don’t just need you to vote,” Obama said. “I need you to gather up your friends and family and make sure that they are also voting. Make sure that they turn up. Because this election requires every single one of us to vote. It’s that important.”

Obama and Biden both warned of threats to democracy, with the 44th president warning that voters “can’t take it for granted” that generations of Americans have fought and died for democracy.

“We have to reaffirm the values that have long defined us,” Biden said.

Former President Trump, meanwhile, will hold a rally for Republicans in Miami. At an event in Pennsylvania on Saturday, Trump expressed hopes for “an historic victory” from Republicans, which could help generate momentum to announce a long-rumored 2024 White House bid. 

Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is running for re-election against Democrat Charlie Crist, will be holding competing rallies in Florida on Sunday, highlighting a rivalry between the two Republican leaders and potential 2024 presidential primary challengers.

At his rally in Pennsylvania Saturday night, Trump referred to the incumbent Florida governor as “Ron DeSanctimonious," and continued to tease a presidential run in 2024.

“This is the year we’re going to take back the House," Trump predicted. "We’re going to take back the Senate. And we’re going to take back America. We’re going to take it back. And in 2024, most importantly, we are going to take back our magnificent, oh-so beautiful White House.”

"Everybody, I promise you, in the very next, very, very, very short period of time, you’re going to be so happy," he added.

Multiple news outlets reported last week that Trump is mulling announcing a 2024 run in November, possibly the week after the midterms draw to a close. Trump’s office did not respond to an email from Spectrum News on Friday morning, but during a rally Thursday night in Sioux City, Iowa, Trump strongly teased that he’d soon announce his third run for president.

“In order to make our country successful and safe and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again,” he said. “Very, very, very, probably.

“Get ready,” Trump added. “That’s all I’m telling you. Very soon.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.