In any normal election year, pundits would say this is Joe Biden's race to lose.

The former vice president has held a steady advantage in the national polls for months. He is ahead in key battleground states. And he has far more paths to victory than does President Donald Trump.

But the pundits and pollsters have a little PTSD from calling the last election wrong. So there's a lot of caution.

One data analyst told me he has never had more information or been confident of its accuracy. And he’s never been more uncertain whether it truly reflects what voters will do.

We do know that many of the states Trump won in 2016 are now in play.

These include more typical swing states Ohio and Wisconsin, but it also includes traditionally red states like Arizona, Georgia and Texas.

That’s largely because the president has eroded support from white suburban women voters who have fled his camp in double digits. His support has also fallen among seniors unhappy with his response to the COVID-19 crisis and blue collar workers in Rust Belt states that are seeing a spike in COVID cases.

The president has built a risky strategy that is centered on maximizing turnout from non-college and non-urban white voters and suppressing the urban vote in swing states. Some analysts call it a campaign of “subtraction.” This means he has a narrow path to 270.

Biden has a broader coalition and, as a result, a bigger map. His challenge is to hold the more conservative white women and blue collar voters who are leaving Trump without losing enthusiasm from more progressive, urban, and young voters who help make up the Democratic base.

Then there’s the early vote. So far more Democrats are voting early. We don’t know whether that will ultimately reflect a higher Democratic turnout of Democrats overall, or just a propensity by Democrats to vote early. Analysts project more Republicans will show up on Nov. 3. 

So what can we project?

Not a lot.

This year states are grappling with an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots. And in many states officials can’t begin the count until election day which will delay the vote tally.

If there is a landslide win in some of those early swing states, that could lead to a clear and early victory. But if it’s close, and the ballot counting takes more than a few days, expect the lawyers to rush in.

That’s where we slide into the realm of a contested election. 

Further complicating matters? The deadline for returning ballots in key swing states is a moving target.

This week alone, courts have changed the rules for receiving ballots in Wisconsin and Minnesota, and the Supreme Court has suggested rules in additional states could be revisited post Nov. 3.

Bottom line: projections are futile right now. The best thing to do is be patient and vote.