Four months out from the Los Angeles mayoral primary election, Rep. Karen Bass is leading the pack, according to a new LA Times and UC Berkeley poll. In a crowded field of more than two dozen candidates, who might come in second place and join her in the runoff is anybody's guess. In an interview for "LA Times Today," staff writer Ben Oreskes told host Lisa McRee about the contenders, their chances and the dramatic shift in the city's electorate in the last two decades.
At the beginning of February, the LA Times worked with UC Berkeley to survey 2,100 registered voters in Los Angeles. Of those surveyed, about 1,500 were identified as likely voters.
"We found that Karen Bass, if the election were held today, would win about 32% of those voters. What we also found is that about 40% of the likely voters are undecided. There's a lot of votes out there those candidates can still pick up. Karen Bass, a congresswoman, a former member of the state assembly, does very well in the areas surrounding and including her congressional district, which encompasses the west side and the south side of LA. I think another notable fact is that about 44% of people view her favorably. But there still are about 40% of people who don't have enough information about her to form an opinion. So, this member of Congress, who became a prominent voice during the Black Lives Matter movement after the killing of George Floyd, has a national profile, and was considered for Vice President, is really benefiting from that notoriety," Oreskes said.
Other candidates have not garnered as much support so far, according to the poll. LA City Councilman Joe Buscaino and City Attorney Mike Feuer are both polling at 4%. Billionaire developer Rick Caruso and Councilman Kevin de Leon are both at 8%.
"It's really tight, and whoever can kind of separate themselves from the pack will likely join Bass in a runoff that would take place in November. A lot can change in four months, but a 20-point lead is something that I don't envision people overcoming. But it remains to be seen what will happen. We've never had an election like this that is aligned with the midterms. I think the crises that LA is facing also mean that people are paying attention more than ever," Oreskes explained.
Rick Caruso, who developed such LA landmarks as the Grove and the Americana, joined the mayoral race right before the deadline to run. He has deep pockets and is already using them to get his name in front of voters. Oreskes explained Caruso's history and his strategy so far.
"Caruso has long flirted with running for mayor. We're talking about decades of on and off dalliances with running for the city's top job. Caruso has spent lots of money already just weeks into entering the race. We saw him do a seven-figure ad buy on television and on places like YouTube. A lot of people didn't know who he was, despite his name being affixed to so many buildings in our city, still being on the air this far out from an election. Getting yourself in front of the voters is eyes and introducing yourself to them will really help his case. I think there are other candidates in this race who could still make inroads," Oreskes said.
Oreskes also explained that the electorate in Los Angeles has shifted greatly in the past few decades. According to the poll, 70% of voters want to see someone with progressive values in the mayor's office, which works in Bass' favor. Last month, Caruso changed his party preference to Democrat.
"Cast your mind back to 1993. I went back and looked at the exit polls from when Richard Riordan ran against Michael Woo, the last time a Republican won in our city. Twenty-nine percent of voters either called themselves a liberal or conservative. The rest called themselves a moderate. This time around in this poll that we just did, 61% of likely voters identified themselves as liberal, 14% as conservative, and the rest is moderate. So, you're looking at a city that has really changed a lot," Oreskes explained.
Oreskes is part of a team putting together a weekly newsletter covering the mayoral race.
"This newsletter is going to come out once a week on Saturdays. [My colleagues] are students of government and politics in this city. And we're just really excited to tell you about what we know because we love this city, and we love following its politics," Oreskes said.
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