President Joe Biden kicked off what is expected to be an aggressive fall campaign Thursday ahead of the crucial midterm elections.

Biden delivered fiery and pointed remarks at a rally and fundraiser in Maryland, warning that “MAGA Republicans” are a threat to democracy and telling attendees that the “right to choose is on the ballot this year.”

The event came as Democrats are feeling a renewed sense of hope about November’s elections, sparked by recent legislative and electoral victories.

Earlier in the week, the party exceeded expectations with a surprise win in a special congressional election in New York’s 19th Congressional District. That victory followed a string of Democratic legislative successes on Capitol Hill, including passage of a historic and long-sought climate and health care law.

“The momentum is shifting in the direction of the Democratic Party. We have more than a fighting chance of winning both the House and the Senate come November,” New York Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres said Wednesday.

But political analyst Kyle Kondik, who serves as managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, cautions that House Democrats in particular still face plenty of headwinds, from inflation to the president’s approval ratings that are improving but still weak. 

An August Gallup Poll put Biden’s job approval rating at 44% – the highest in a year by that survey. However, his overall ratings remain underwater, with the poll showing 53% of Americans disapprove of his job performance. 

“When you have had presidents who have presided over successful midterms for their parties, usually those presidents are pretty popular,” Kondik said.

Democrats are also running up against historic precedent: The party in the White House typically loses seats in the midterms. 

That said, there are signs that the political environment has improved for Democrats, especially in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this summer that overturned Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to an abortion. 

In the New York special election in the Hudson Valley, Democrat Pat Ryan made abortion access a pillar of his successful campaign against his Republican challenger, who focused his messaging on inflation and crime.

And earlier this month, voters in Kansas -- a solidly red state -- opted to preserve abortion rights there.

Kondik argues the fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision creates a different dynamic from typical midterms, which often function as a referendum on the president and their party. 

“Perhaps the biggest backlash in this election is to something that the party in power did not actually do, the opposition party did through the court,” he said. 

Kondik says right now, Democrats have an even chance to maintain control of the Senate. But he still thinks it will be a heavy lift for Democrats to preserve their thin majority in the House.