MADISON, Wis. — Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., will return to Washington, D.C., next year for a third term. She played defense against Republican Eric Hovde all year, as he mounted an aggressive attempt to claim her seat. Early Wednesday morning, she claimed victory, continuing a streak of never losing an election in her nearly four-decade political career.
“It is a rarity to have a split outcome like this involving a presidential race,” said Craig Gilbert, a columnist at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "It's been decades since it happened in Wisconsin."
"It's also become a big rarity for a state to send senators of opposing parties to the Senate, and we're going on like, 14 years in Wisconsin of having one Republican senator and one Democratic senator," Gilbert continued. "That's a reflection of party line voting and how rare it is to get different results like we got in this election in Wisconsin. And we're going to continue to have the oddest political odd couple in the Senate for what looks like at least another four years, where they're further apart politically than any other pair of same-state senators, and they have been for some time. That's another, I guess, marker of Wisconsin's 50-50 nature."
The other U.S. Senator from Wisconsin is Ron Johnson, a Republican, who won re-election in 2022, the same year Democratic Gov. Tony Evers won.
Baldwin won re-election six years ago by nearly 11 points, but barely edged Hovde by less than a point this year. She succeeded despite headwinds at the top of the ticket, caused by former President Donald Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in Wisconsin. Gilbert said Baldwin was able to win by narrowing her losses in the state’s Republican, rural areas.
“Some of the places where Baldwin most outperformed Harris were small rural counties in the north and west and center of the state, where she's had a history of doing a little bit better than other Democrats on Republican turf,” Gilbert said. “But it doesn't take a lot of people to either split their ticket or vote third party in one race to get a split outcome when the races are that close.”
The results in central Wisconsin help to tell the story. Baldwin won more votes than Harris in Clark, Jackson and Taylor Counties, giving Hovde a smaller margin of victory than Trump enjoyed there.
In a statement, Hovde said he’s disappointed that Democrats tried to “siphon votes with a fraudulent candidate,” referring to the far-right candidate, Thomas Leager of the America First Party, who was recruited by Democratic operatives to run, according to the Associated Press.
“I think the bottom line is, rarely do third party candidates really tip the balance, because their supporters would not go 100% for the losing candidate,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll. “They're voting for a third party candidate precisely because they didn't want to choose the Democrat or the Republican.”
The race was so close that there could be a recount, if Hovde pays for it.
“Generally, we kind of wait for the canvass and see what the actual result is based on the reporting wards across the state,” said Brian Schimming, chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party. “So we’re going to gather some information before I think any decisions are made and obviously be talking to Eric Hovde.”
In a statement, Baldwin said voters chose someone who puts Wisconsin first and her campaign is calling on Hovde to concede.