WASHINGTON — When President Joe Biden announced he was passing the torch, Vice President Kamala Harris quickly gained enough support to be the Democratic party’s likely nominee for president. The aftershocks quickly were felt and seen in Wisconsin.
When Harris was leaving for Milwaukee Tuesday, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., met her at the airport and joined her on the plane. But when Biden visited the state this year, Baldwin kept her distance.
“If the top of the ticket was unpopular, she was in northern Wisconsin,” said Mordecai Lee, professor emeritus at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. “If now the top of the ticket is popular, and the grassroots are enthusiastic, she's right there … Baldwin very deliberately separating herself from Biden and hugging Harris says all the things in the world that you need to interpret it.”
Baldwin, the incumbent Democratic senator, is running against Republican businessman Eric Hovde. In a statement to Spectrum News, Baldwin’s campaign said her race has always been about Baldwin’s record of working for Wisconsin families.
“Wisconsinites know that the choice in the Senate race is crystal clear: Tammy Baldwin, who fights for working families to lower costs, take on Big Pharma, and protect reproductive freedom. And Eric Hovde, a California bank owner who insults Wisconsinites time and time again — from saying people in nursing homes shouldn’t vote to accusing farmers of not working hard anymore,” said Arik Wolk, the Democratic party of Wisconsin’s rapid response director.
Charles Franklin, a Wisconsin political expert and head of the Marquette University Law School poll, said Harris taking over could have a big impact on down-ballot races.
“I think whatever Harris' virtues or vices are, it's a fresh start," Franklin said. "And it's likely to re-energize those Democrats who were becoming so discouraged with Biden as the nominee.”
“I suspect that the jolt of Biden dropping out and Harris being at the top of the ticket will benefit Baldwin, will probably benefit the whole column, because there are just so few ticket-splitters left,” Lee added.
Hovde’s campaign indicated that Harris’ ascent will not impact his race for Senate, since the issues are the same.
"While the name at the top of the ticket has changed, the failed Biden-Harris policies Sen. Baldwin enthusiastically supports have not,” said Zach Bannon, a spokesperson for the Hovde campaign, in a statement to Spectrum News. “A vote for Harris and Baldwin is a vote for failed radical liberal policies that sparked record-high inflation, the worst border crisis in American history, and a spike in violent crime. It’s time for real change to restore the American Dream."
Inflation hit a 40-year-high two years ago, but has since eased. After spiking during the pandemic, violent crime fell in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, according to FBI data. And after a record surge in illegal border crossings by migrants, the number of encounters at the southern border have dropped 55% in the seven weeks since Biden imposed new border restrictions.
Hovde spent months comparing Baldwin and Biden, and one expert said that messaging may not be transferrable to Harris, now that she’s at the top of the ticket.
“For him to say, ‘I'm running against Baldwin because of Harris and Biden,’ I'm not sure that that will click with the voters,” Lee said. “Generally speaking, an election is a one-on-one, one versus the other. And so there needs to be an explanation and a platform of, here are the pros and cons for this side, and here are the pros and cons for that side.”
The Harris campaign is already making Wisconsin a focus. She kicked off her presidential campaign in Milwaukee this week, and her husband Doug Emhoff will stump in the state this weekend.